Is a Romney – Ryan victory possible? Probable?

1. Only seven or eight U.S. states are in political play – the so-called "swing states" – so Republicans are able to concentrate their massive resources. They are, east to west; New Hampshire, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. Obama must win most of them in order to be re-elected.

Republican election expenditures for this election are record-breaking — hundreds of millions of dollars, possibly in the billions. Large and small employers are also campaigning for Romney in the workplace, coercing employees to vote Republican. This is a new advantage possessed only by Romney.

2. Republicans plan to bar millions of workers from voting, using their new voter suppression laws and tactics — such as preventing workers from voting without some official photo ID.

3. The overwhelming level of popular enthusiasm for Obama in 2008 among labor, working people, women, minority voters, and youth — is gone. Pockets of excitement remain, but overall this significant political advantage has been lost. The dynamic today is far more similar to the November, 2010 election, where Democrats collapsed across the board. Large numbers of Democrats running for Congress and in state races are avoiding any association with Obama, fearful of the 2010 effect.

4. A growing number of major U.S. employers — including the General Electric Company (GE) — have now signaled their preference for Romney. GE made this same "turn" away from Republican John McCain — and to support for Barack Obama in September of 2008 —exactly as they have just done now in favor of Romney. GE’s signal is understood in business and political circles as confirmation that Romney will likely win. (See Bloomberg article, August 14, 2012, "Goldman Sachs Leads Split With Obama, as GE Jilts Him Too")

5. No modern U.S. President has been re-elected when the unemployment rate is as high as it is today – more than 10%+ in real terms. The economic recession and stagnation has always been the key issue for undecided voters, who will now begin to pick either Obama or Romney in the final weeks.

6. Worse than ever in U.S. political history, the mass-consumption news media — primarily TV and radio – is overwhelmingly supportive of Romney. This support is shown by the rigged "news" coverage and reporting as well as the sheer volume of advertisements being shown that attack Obama and support Romney. The internet is the only equalizer for Obama.

7. There is a widespread fear and mistrust of Romney and many Republican policies, but the Romney campaign is now focusing on rehabilitating his image and message to be more acceptable to voters – especially working women. Romney is being repackaged for sale as a normal, reasonable, family guy.

To summarize; while it is always possible that some negative event or revelation may tilt the election towards one candidate or the other, Romney has most of the resource advantages in this election.

By all measures the Obama regime has failed in its governance, and three years of political defeat and surrender will be difficult to overcome by several months of election campaigning alone. This situation requires our immediate redoubling of effort to avoid disaster.

September 6, 2012

Chris Townsend is the representative of the United Electrical Workers (UE) in Washington DC. He writes in a personal capacity.