By Jimmy Cloutier
September 19, 2024 OpenSecrets
Early voting began on Sept. 11, setting off the final and most expensive two-month sprint to election day.
Here is what we’re watching as we barrel toward Nov. 5.
Post-debate fundraising bump
Throughout the spring, former President Trump struggled to raise as much money as then-Democratic nominee President Joe Biden. He managed to overtake the president in May, but that was before Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ticket, upending the presidential race and galvanizing Democratic donors.
Harris regained a fundraising advantage in July, according to the latest campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. That month, the vice president raised about $202.3 million from individual donors — $156.1 million more than Trump. She also spent three times more than the ex-president in July — $79.2 million to $24 million. Fundraising totals for the month of August will be available Sept. 20.
Harris’ cash advantage could grow following the Sept. 10 presidential debate. Fundraising totals for September will not be released until Oct. 20, but signs point to a post-debate fundraising bump for the vice president.
Democrats on Sept. 10 raised nearly $45.8 million through ActBlue, according to the ActBlue ticker tracker, a project spearheaded by journalist Ryan Murphy that pulls numbers from the fundraising platform’s “ticket.” It was ActBlue’s third-best fundraising day of the election cycle, although the ticker isn’t an official tally of donations, and not all of that money went directly to Harris.
Harris’ campaign also fundraised off the endorsement of music icon Taylor Swift, who told her 280 million followers on Instagram that she would be voting for the vice president less than an hour after the debate ended.
Outside spending
Super PACs and other outside groups that can raise and spend unlimited sums of money on U.S. elections have poured about $1.7 billion into 2024 federal races as of Sept. 19 — nearly twice what similar groups spent over the same period in the 2020 presidential election cycle when independent expenditures hit an all-time record. About half of that money — $911 million — has gone into the presidential primary and general elections.
Groups like the pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc., have helped make up for the ex-president’s financial deficit. As of Sept. 19, MAGA Inc. has spent about $211 million on independent expenditures in the presidential election, about twice what any other outside group has spent this cycle. Half that money has been spent on independent expenditures opposing Harris.
Congressional races have also attracted millions in outside spending. In 34 congressional races across the nation, outside groups have outspent the candidates themselves, including in pivotal senate races in Montana, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC at the center of a network of conservative donors and activists led by billionaire Charles Koch, ranks among the biggest outside spenders in congressional elections, spending more than $49.9 million on efforts to help Republicans hold onto the U.S. House and win back the Senate.
Another top spender is Fairshake, a super PAC established last year to prop up candidates it sees as friendly to the cryptocurrency industry. Fairshake and its affiliated super PACs, Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs, have spent a combined $90 million on elections in 2024 — more than any other industry-focused group.
Electioneering communications
More than $5 million in electioneering communications have been reported as of Sept. 19 and that number is expected to rise.
Electioneering communications are TV and radio ads that mention a candidate but don’t express a position on the outcome of an election. While often intended to influence an election, these ads, unlike independent expenditures, avoid words such as “vote for” or “vote against” that explicitly call for the election or defeat of a candidate.
Those electioneering communications aren’t required to be disclosed except when made within 60 days before the Nov. 5 general election or 30 days before a primary. Any spending outside of that window is never disclosed to the FEC.
While reported electioneering communications make up a small fraction of total outside spending in elections, they offer some insight into which groups are trying to sway voters and tip an election. Electioneering communications hit $25 million in 2020, and most of that spending was by so-called “dark money” groups that don’t disclose their donors.
Still, disclosure rules regarding electioneering communications only extend to TV and radio ads. Outside groups are pouring millions more into online ads that boost or attack candidates without explicitly advocating for their election or defeat. These internet ads are not subject to requirements so dark money groups can continue spending millions of dollars up until Election Day without ever disclosing a dime.
-Jimmy Cloutier is the money-in-politics reporter at OpenSecrets, covering campaign finance and lobbying. He holds a master’s degree from Arizona State University’s Howard Center for Investigative Journalism.
